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China Merchants Futures analyst Xu Shiwei said that the Federal Reserve has shifted its focus from employment data to Concern about consumption and inflation. As long as the new non-farm payrolls are no less than 10,000, the probability of interest rate hikes will not go down. The issue of inflation can also be traced from the long-term government bond yields. Recently, the long-term government bond yields of the United States, Japan and the European Union have rebounded to a certain extent, and market inflation expectations have increased slightly.
Uncertainties still exist. Italy will hold a referendum on domestic constitutional reform on October 1, European time. On the surface, the goal of the referendum is constitutional reform, but if the referendum results, it may disintegrate the current Italian Democratic Party government led by Renzi and hold an early election at the beginning of the year. And the likelihood that it will turn out to be yes is now becoming more and more likely.
In the past month, Italian government bond yields have soared from 10 basis points to 10 basis points. The biggest monthly increase since 2008. If the result of this referendum is positive, it is likely to drive the Italian ten-year bond yield to a new high during the Greek crisis. At the same time, driven by safe-haven demand, German government bonds may be sought after, bringing the yield back to the negative range. More than doubling the spread between the two.
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